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The gravest possible consequences of the climate crisis for the UK have been mapped by experts, including a blistering 4C jump in average temperatures to a two-metre surge in ocean levels. Another scenario envisions a decline of 6C in temperatures following the shutdown of key Atlantic Ocean currents, which would massively disrupt farming and power requirements.

Plausible Extremes, Not Forecasts

These consequences, a number of which are linked to climate tipping points, are viewed as unlikely but plausible. The team stated that these models plugged a hole in risk assessment that had rendered the UK not ready for catastrophic possibilities.

"The severe weather events we have detailed are not forecasts, but they are possible," commented the lead researcher who oversaw the research. "The nation has been making preparations in the absence of the methods to assess catastrophic outcomes. We've now given planners what they need to get ready for future conditions they wish to avoid, but dare not dismiss."

A Range of Harsh Climate Projections

Another collection of severe models sets out the possible scale of severe conditions between now and the year 2100. These indicate that thermometer readings could soar in some months by up to 6C above the norm, while rainfall could be three times normal levels.

The probability of the worst-case outcomes occurring remains uncertain due to uncertainty about what steps will be enacted to combat global warming and how the Earth's systems will respond. This analysis was likened to defence planning or resilience checks for the banking sector.

Key Scenario Details

• Severe Heating: Worldwide averages rising well above 4C by 2100 could transpire if climate action collapses or if powerful amplifying effects including the Amazon rainforest dying release its enormous store of carbon. This would lead to extreme and prolonged heat domes and dry spells affecting the UK in summer.
• AMOC Shutdown: A key circulation system, the North Atlantic current, is slowing down and losing stability due to climate change. A complete failure beginning in 2030 would lead to a drastic cooling in the UK. "Agriculture would be severely challenged and freshwater availability would be completely altered," said the lead researcher.
• Sudden Ocean Inundation: A surge of 2.0-2.2 metres around the UK by 2100 could take place if polar ice in Greenland and Antarctica collapse rapidly, submerging low-lying areas. In contrast to the other scenarios, this possibility is already known by planners.
• Aerosol Effect: Temperatures could also be pushed higher by about 0.75C if industrial aerosols is drastically reduced. This unexpected result occurs because pollution particles from fossil fuel combustion reflect solar radiation from warming the ground.

Planning for the Unthinkable

The severe models could be utilized in planning the development of long-term infrastructure, for example new towns, nuclear power stations and urban drainage systems. Knowledge about these environmental threats could also hasten the transition to slash carbon pollution.

The research formulated the extreme models using a combination of past data and records, climate models and scientific theory. These outcomes omit international cascading effects such as the agricultural collapse and geopolitical instability.

The project was requested as part of a official climate resilience programme. Independent analyses have warned that insufficient focus was being given to high-consequence, low-probability risks.

The government's climate advisors has stated that the UK needs to "prepare for two degrees of warming" and evaluate the risks for four degrees. Earlier government strategies have been described as being "insufficient" by some observers.

An official statement noted: "Climate change is at the heart of the country's focus, both adapting for the future and becoming a renewable energy leader. It is crucial that the UK is ready for the effects."