Keir Starmer's Backers Launch 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Return

Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a coordinated initiative to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to parliament. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an upcoming byelection.

Serious Obstacles in the Selection Process

A number of figures on the party's powerful NEC have reportedly predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to avoid any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted anger within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would only return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several insiders also shared fears about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a strong challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.

The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.