Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each writes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
