Day-to-Day Murders in the nation Fall Thirty-Seven Percent Under the Sheinbaum Administration, Per Official Data

The average count of daily homicides monthly in Mexico has decreased by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per fresh official statistics. Nevertheless, security analysts have cautioned that homicide numbers may not point to improved countrywide safety.

Marked Decline in Daily Numbers

Officials reported an mean of almost 55 killings a day in last November compared with roughly 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the presidency in September. This announcement was delivered by the head of the country’s federal public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on Tuesday.

“The figures in homicides that have been recorded over these months is remarkably significant,” the President remarked, noting that last month the smallest figure of homicides were documented for any November in the past decade.

Historical Context and Government Plan

Violent organized crime internal conflicts, alongside the administration's highly militarised operations to confront the drug gangs, have caused Mexico’s murder rate rise sharply in recent years. The rate peaked at a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the nation's official data agency.

That resulted in Mexico a murder rate over four times greater than that of the United States. Since then, homicides have been on the downward trend, falling to 33,550 the previous year. Claudia Sheinbaum has linked her public safety strategy for an apparently sharper drop in homicides this year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the Mexican leader said: “There is a strategy, there is oversight of the plan, and there is detailed tracking locality by locality in some cases. The strategy is effective. And we have to persist at it each day.”

The central pillars of the President's security strategy involve:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Enhancing information gathering and investigative capabilities.
• Enhanced collaboration between government departments.

Analyst Caution and Data Concerns

However, security researchers warned that focusing solely on murder numbers to assess the situation of pacification was misleading. This is particularly true given the uptick in other criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“This would be excellent information if this was a reduction, but I think we shouldn't just focus on the murder data and say: ‘Oh well, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican organised crime. “I would be tentatively optimistic.”

As reported by the public policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total dropped by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year compared with the identical timeframe last year. However, disappearances have increased by 15% and in certain states have surged by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on murders is not reliable for gauging the reality of violence,” said Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who lack the resources or the will to correctly recognize and classify bodies. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the ability to hide violence through abductions.”

Vargas added that using month-to-month averages of daily homicides was also concerning because it could obscure periods when there were especially elevated numbers of murders.

“Using the daily mean makes surges of violent crime invisible,” he stated.

Detentions and Confiscations as Measures of Success

An area where the administration can highlight the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on arrests and seizures. Almost 40,000 suspects were apprehended between October 2024 and November 2025 for serious offenses, according to government data. More than 20,000 guns were taken and 311 tons of narcotics intercepted.

“Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because in reality she is doing a lot with these thousands of detentions, thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of criminal groups. It’s very politically beneficial,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Societal Frustration

But notwithstanding these actions, Mexico is still beset by high bloodshed, with multiple states in the grip of cartel-driven violence. Recently there was a prominent killing of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, among 10 mayors murdered in the past year.

A short time later, many thousands of youth demonstrated in Mexico City and throughout the country to show their anger at corruption and cartel violence.

“The government frames [data] in a way to build a story of security. Politically it’s highly effective, from a social perspective it’s highly problematic,” the analyst concluded.